Model agreement has improved…I’m not going to rehash the impacts I have discussed in previous posts except to say that with many of the western outliars now coming into line with a track that takes Sandy/FrankenStorm ashore near Sandy Hook, NJ, rather than the Delmarva or Atlantic City (or Cape Code on the other side, also now in the vast minority among solutions produced by the models), my confidence in the catastrophic impacts has increased still further.
A reminder, I defined a catstrophic event as one which produced 10 billion dollars in damage (or more, obviously) and I now believe this to be 90% likely. With a 100% chance of an east coast landfall somewhere between Cape May, NJ and Montawk, NY.
Provisions are being procured by everyone in my department here in Stony Brook – myself included. Prepare for the worst if you’re affected.
The DC readers will probably like to know that the wind forecast I made there holds, with a slight reduction in projected rainfall – I’m thinking 4-8 inches of rain are in the cards (in line with the rain the region got when Hurricane Fran hit NC in 1996.