FrankenStorm Warning…

I am getting word that the Hurricane Center intends to stop issuing advisories on the storm after it gets north of North Carolina, claiming it is extra-tropical and not their concern.  I am here to issue a stern warning to you and to EXCORIATE the Hurricane Center for using scientific minutia to avoid responsibility in a complex situation.  Make excuses about it not being TECHNICALLY tropical anymore all you want..your bullshit is transparent and I’m not listening.  SHAME on the Hurricane Center.  SHAME on them for abandoning the people to confusion and forcing the Weather Service to do all the work and rouse the people to prepare properly for what could be a historic event.

Whether it has a symmetric, warm core or not…whether it’s over tropical waters or not…whether it looks more like a nor’easter or a hurricane…NO ONE GIVES A SHIT.  The science can wait.  You can reclassify it as extratropical for the geeks who write case-study papers two months from now (like me…heh) – but for right now, all that matters is the public and their safety and preparedness.  It is a known fact that the public UNDERSTANDS what a Hurricane Warning means.  Are they going to understand what a Coastal Flood Warning, Hurricane Force Wind Warning, Flood Watch, Rip Tide Warning etc all combine to mean?  No…sorry…people don’t pay enough attention to realize that the difference between a hybrid nor’easter with tropical qualities and a hurricane is NOTHING in terms of impacts.  No matter how NWS words their advisories and public information statements, they’re never going to have the same impact on boaters, coastal communities and the population at large as the NHC’s hurricane warning has.  And evacuations get triggered automatically with hurricane warnings that may go un-ordered in the alternative scenario.

NHC forecasters know this.  They KNOW that if they don’t issue dubious warnings, people aren’t going to act in the same way they would with them doing their god-damned jobs.  If they fail to issue hurricane warnings, they are guilty of NEGLIGENT HOMICIDE if anyone dies because they did not prepare.  You do not abandon the people to scientific jargon that means NOTHING to public lives and property.  If it was at any time a hurricane, and it is having hurricane impacts…call it a f***ing hurricane and issue the damned warnings.  Reclassifying it later for the eggheads if you must cling to your rules, but for now…do your damned jobs and protect our lives.  Period.

On another matter, I am asking anyone who reads this to kindly IGNORE the NHC forecast.  It’s absolute crap.  They’re basing their track forecast on outdated, scientifically dubious, and frequently VERY wrong computer models that use techniques no longer considered the gold standard in mesoscale modeling – the GFDL and HWRF models they seem to obsessively lean on for predicting hurricane tracks are failing miserably compared to real time verifications of the NAM and GFS (and SREF guidance and EC and CMC and NOGAPS and even UKMet!!)…they have PERSISTENTLY been too far SW, too strong, and too broad with their circulations inside the storm and they are NOTORIOUS for those biases among weather forecasters.  ALL MODEL GUIDANCE except for the models used primarily by the NHC are taking the storm in near Sandy Hook, NYC, or Central Jersey and NOT DOVER FRACKIN’ DELAWARE!

Their lack of competence is astounding…and their moral cowardice even more shocking.

That is all.

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