Tweaks to Accumulation Forecasts

With the midday run of the European Center model and its ensembles, the afternoon runs of the US generated models and the short range ensemble forecast system, confidence has increased for a colder, wetter, and more intense solution, including some areas not previously highlighted in my forecast for yesterday.

Significant accumulation snows (>6 inches) may extend as far SW as the NW suburbs of Philadelphia and places like Cleveland, OH and Erie PA.  Amounts warranting the issuance of a winter weather advisory may fall as far SW as Pittsburgh, State College and Harrisburg, PA and Aberdeen, MD/Wilmington, DE

A region of upstate New York including such places as Binghamton, Oswego and Syracuse may see up to a foot of very fluffy, very high-ratio snows as well, and I’m increasingly confident that up to 18 inches may fall further west into the Hudson Valley and Catskill Mountains (again, due to expected very high ratio fluffy snow).  For the same reason, I’m extending the 24-inch line back from Springfield and East of Hartford to Danbury, CT, the Central North Shore of Long Island, NY, Pittsfield, MA and the greater Mt. Washington region in NH.

All eyes on the sky tomorrow morning as the precipitation breaks out.  If it falls heavy enough early enough, it is unlikely to be as warm in the coastal zones as previously thought, meaning travel conditions tomorrow may be less benign than advertised.  If you don’t have to work tomorrow…you shouldn’t tempt fate.  Stay home and enjoy the snow.

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